COVID-19 – not quite as dangerous as you think

 

With the way the mainstream media goes on, you would be forgiven for thinking that COVID-19, particularly the dreaded Delta strain, is as dangerous as the Black Death that killed half of Europe in the 14^th century. All manners of unprecedented restrictions and emergency powers are being excused and exercised by governments worldwide as a result. Well, lucky for us, the data show that COVID-19, especially the Delta strain, is not nearly as serious as we are led to believe.

 

The Public Health England (PHE) briefing, which came out at the end of June, reports promising data – the Delta strain, which is now the predominant strain in the UK and in many parts of the world, has a much lower case fatality rate than the original Alpha strain. In fact, it is only a tenth as deadly, with a case fatality rate of 0.13%. This is similar to that of the seasonal flu. It should be noted that data collection for this report began before the vaccination effort in the UK really took off. This downgrade in seriousness is further supported by lower rates of emergency hospital visits (A&E in the UK) by those with the Delta strain compared to those with the Alpha strain, especially for the vulnerable group aged over 50, whose rates of A&E visits with the Delta strain is almost half that of those with the Alpha strain (7.6% vs 14.2%).

A recent paper available on the CDC website also presents good news. The study examined over half a million people hospitalized for COVID-19 in the US, largely before vaccine rollouts, and found that 94.9% of hospitalized patients had at least one underlying medical condition. In fact, 82.4% had more than two underlying medical conditions. This shows that COVID-19 only poses serious danger almost exclusively to those who are already ill. Therefore the danger to the healthy is much smaller than the generalized and gross statistics in the media would suggest.

 

These news do not mean that societies should not still treat COVID-19 as a serious matter. Vaccinations, sanitation, and common sense care should still prevail. But it certainly adds to the other side of the scales in the balance of societal reactions in favour of liberating societies from the most inhumane of restrictions. But all one sees from glancing at the headlines are doom and gloom.

 

It is a crying shame that these positive news are not reported by the mainstream media, who also neglect to report on the shocking consequences of continued lockdowns. These include vast increases in unemployment, significant proportions of businesses that will never reopen, looming mental health issues in children and in adults, record levels of overdose deaths, thousands of additional dementia deaths unrelated to COVID-19 but due to isolation caused by lockdowns, and a huge educational gap that will have lifelong consequences for millions of children across the world, not to mention the record amount of debt that these same children will have to pay off. 

 

The new study from the US also underlines the failures of lockdown policies. The strongest single risk factors associated with death, as uncovered by the researchers, are obesity, anxiety and fear-related disorders, and diabetes with related complications, all things exacerbated by not allowing people to go outdoors, get some sunlight (vitamin D is protective against COVID-19 and is important in preventing mental health issues), see their friends and families, and to engage in productive activities. A recent large cohort Korean study reported that a healthy dose of exercise can reduce the risk of COVID-19 mortality by 80% - almost as much as vaccines. The government and the media would do a lot more good to advocate for regular exercise and getting sunlight instead of scaring people not to leave their homes.  Furthermore, multiple studies have shown that lockdowns are not linked to reduced viral spread nor to reduced mortality.

 

The UK government’s recent decision to given back to its people their natural right of freedom is clearly the correct decision in light of all the latest scientific data. The fact that many other countries have, if anything, doubled-down with pig-headed on the never-ending cycles of devastating lockdowns is intolerable. Like Melbourne, where its sixth lockdown has just been extended for another week. After opening  up on the 19^th of July, against dire warnings from the pusillanimous, daily case numbers in the UK have steadily declined over the past weeks while death numbers have remained stable. Likewise, in Sweden, where the last mask rule was dropped on the 1^st of July, the 7-day average deaths have fallen to zero over the past month. It is time for the world to talk about opening up like adults.