Coronavirus – an over-vilified villain?

While no time is a good time for a virus outbreak, the COVID-19 virus, or simply the coronavirus, like an undesirable party guest, had made its unwelcome entrance at a particularly bad time. Having made landfall, the virus has, in a relatively short amount of time, infected more than 110,000 people across 100 countries and has killed over 3,800, most of whom were residents of Wuhan, China, the epicentre of this outbreak.

The rapidity of its spread is notable – it took a quarter of the time to infect 10 times the amount of people that SARS did during its outbreak in 2003, though the lethality of COVID-19 is approximately a third of SARS, with a death rate of around 3.4% (versus 9.6% for SARS) as of March the 3rd. In comparison, seasonal flu kills a fraction of 1% of those it infects.

The consequences of this outbreak, especially as it starts to spread notably in Italy and Iran (with Italy in its first day of total lockdown of the entire country, with its 60 million citizens), has included some panic buying of supplies and big falls in the share markets. But how much of it is simply sensationalism and alarmism? Here, I’ll try to point to some more subtle but perhaps under-reported and optimistic side of the affair.

The Chinese government informed the World Health Organisation of the presence of a mysterious pneumonia that had struck down scores of people in Wuhan on the last day of 2019. The first confirmed death from the new virus was reported on January the 11^th and the communist government imposed strict lockdown of Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, on the 23^rd of January.

Chinese Lunar New Year, the biggest celebration on the Chinese calendar, fell on the 25^th of January in 2020. At this time, much like Christmas, people rush home to celebrate with their family. ‘Chun Yun’ or ‘Spring Transport’, usually begins a fortnight before the Chinese New Year. This yearly event is accompanied with the largest migration of people on the planet, with an estimated 3 billion journey being made in 2020.

Waiting at the train station during Chun Yun

Hence, the timing for a seemingly very infectious virus to rear its ugly head, could not have come at a worse time.  Not only did the virus manifest in a large city of 11 million people, the commercial and industrial hub of central China, it did so at a time when literally millions of people from the city were travelling interstate, making it an ideal time to spread the virus as fast as possible.

This timing may have accelerated the spread, which, had the Chinese New Year being more typical, and fallen in early-mid February, the spread may have been more contained.

Empty motorways of Wuhan

One doesn’t want to underplay the seriousness of the situation, or detract from the cautionary behaviour recommended by the authorities; however, in light of what appears to be chronic shortage of toilet paper, pasta and rice in supermarkets around the world, with people starting to squirrel away supplies in readiness for apocalypse (though why toilet paper I’ve never fathomed), it’s also worthwhile to point to some context that might calm some fraying nerves.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US, the flu season of 2019-2020 (October 1^st to February 29^th) has affected 34-39 million people and killed 20,000-52,000 people. This is in the US, where the population is less than a quarter of China. Similarly, the Office of National Statistics in the UK reported 50,100 ‘excess winter deaths’, most of which were probably due to ‘the predominant strain of flu’ and lower than normal temperatures. Indeed, the CDC’s estimate puts global yearly flu deaths at around 291,000-646,000. If the coronavirus kills 10 times more people than it has already in the next two months, to give it the same time span as the average flu season, it would only have matched the lower estimates of the average death toll for the quotidian flu. Yet there is no calls for everyone to wear masks and avoid crowds during winter.

Feeling faint? There’s more. Tuberculosis infected an estimated 10 million people in 2018, 1.5 million of whom died. China has the third largest number of tuberculosis cases in the world. WHO estimated in 2015 that China accounts for 10% of total cases, or around 1 million TB cases. Though death rate has dropped substantially with better treatment, in 2015, almost 50,000 people died from TB – a death rate of 5%. However, no one would question your sanity if you were wanting to holiday in China pre coronavirus. Further, India accounted for 23% of global TB cases and people flock there to see the sights and experience the culture sans masks.

If you feel a bit queasy about going outdoors, don’t be. These statistics simply puts into context the relative risk of the coronavirus. Media sensationism no doubt played a part in inflating the dangers of the latest virus on the block. If the media endlessly reported death statistics of the flu and TB the way it does the coronavirus, no doubt people will be worried. But the media has its own agenda, of generating clicks and reads with sensationalist headlines.

Notwithstanding the conspiracy theories, looking back on history, we should expect one of these outbreaks every few decades. The Plague of Athens was a typhoid outbreak that occurred in 430BC and killed around 100,000 people and turned the tide of the Peloponnesian War. The Black Deaths pandemic in the 14^th century killed an estimated one third of the European population (75-200 million). More recently, the 1918 Spanish Flu killed more people than the First World War (17-50 million). The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic (H2N2) killed 1.1 million. The 1968 Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) killed a million people globally. The 2009 H1N1 flu epidemic killed 150,000-575,000 people. There was the Mexican Swine Flu in the same year.

While it is true that the rate of the coronavirus seems to be slowing down in China, the new outbreaks in Italy and Iran is troubling. The Schengen area in Europe doesn’t help to slow the spread and the lack of facility and resources in Iran and neighbouring countries also would forecast high death rates. However, even for those unfortunate enough to be infected, the coronavirus will spare 97% of those it blights. So please spare some toilet roll for those of us who genuinely need them.

And finally, as promised, the silver lining. The pollution in China has gone down dramatically during the period of sanctioned movements, due to much less traffic and fewer factories operating at full capacity. In Japan, the cases of flu patients have dropped to a 10 year low, to about a third of 2018. This is in large part due to the precautions people there are taking for the coronavirus. Undoubtedly, this has saved many hundreds of lives. And the same effect should be observed in other countries as the data starts to appear.

By all means, wash your hands often, wear masks in crowded places and cough into a handkerchief. Remember that the people of Wuhan, who are suffering the worst of the epidemic, have been in quarantine for almost 2 months and their lack of freedom has undoubtedly kept the virus much more at bay. Their humor in the light of it all is worth emulating. On the other hand, references to the 'Wuhan virus' or travel bans for travelers from China are not racist acts, but understandable precautions. But whatever happens, remember the wise words of Robert Louis Stevenson, “Keep your fears to yourself, but share your courage with others.” And leave me some damned toilet paper.